Blue, white and chrome all over: Smart humanoid robots threaten both blue and white-collar jobs

AI expert Lance Eliot warns that the combination of artificial general intelligence (AGI) with humanoid robots will create a “double-whammy” effect, eliminating both white-collar and blue-collar jobs simultaneously. While current discussions focus primarily on AGI threatening intellectual work, Eliot argues this perspective misses the broader threat when AGI-powered humanoid robots can perform physical tasks traditionally considered safe from automation.

The big picture: Current job displacement fears center on AGI replacing white-collar workers due to its intellectual capabilities, leading many to recommend blue-collar work as a safe alternative.

• AGI is defined as AI that matches human intellect, while artificial superintelligence (ASI) would exceed human capabilities entirely.
• Most experts surveyed predict AGI arrival around 2040, despite some industry leaders claiming it’s just years away.
• The assumption that AGI will automatically replace human workers depends heavily on cost factors that remain unknown.

Why blue-collar jobs aren’t safe: Humanoid robots paired with AGI will eventually perform physical tasks that currently require human hands and presence.

• A plumber’s work involves physical presence, tool manipulation, and hands-on repairs that seem immune to digital automation.
• However, humanoid robots are rapidly advancing beyond their current clumsy, error-prone state toward human-level physical dexterity.
• AGI-powered humanoid robots could drive themselves to job sites, communicate with customers, and perform complex physical tasks.

The timing scenarios: Three potential development paths could lead to the AGI-humanoid robot combination.

• Option 1: AGI arrives first and accelerates humanoid robot development by solving remaining technical bottlenecks.
• Option 2: Physically capable humanoid robots emerge first, initially powered by conventional AI until AGI becomes available.
• Option 3: Both technologies mature simultaneously around 2040, creating an immediate powerful combination.

What makes this a “double-whammy”: The convergence threatens employment across all sectors rather than just intellectual work.

• White-collar jobs face displacement from AGI’s intellectual capabilities.
• Blue-collar jobs face elimination from AGI-powered humanoid robots performing physical tasks.
• Traditional advice to pivot from white-collar to blue-collar work becomes obsolete when both sectors are automated.

The economic implications: Cost considerations will ultimately determine adoption rates for AGI and humanoid robot combinations.

• AGI deployment costs remain unknown and could be prohibitively expensive, potentially creating “AGI haves and have-nots.”
• Total employment costs include management, HR issues, and other factors beyond hourly wages.
• AGI systems offer advantages like instant on/off capability that human workers cannot match.

Looking ahead: Eliot promises to examine the “enormous consequences” of AGI-humanoid robot pairing in future analysis.

• Economic, societal, and cultural impacts will be “gargantuan” when both job categories face simultaneous automation.
• The author maintains optimism that “humankind can handle the double whammy” despite the challenges ahead.