Nvidia remains our top AI pick, says Intelligent Alpha’s Doug Clinton
Nvidia remains top AI pick amid tech sector challenges
In a world where big tech is facing numerous headwinds, from antitrust lawsuits to tariff uncertainties, one expert still sees value in a particular AI player.
Doug Clinton's perspective on tech investments
Doug Clinton, founder and CEO of Intelligent Alpha, recently shared insights on tech investments in the current market environment. Despite acknowledging that "nothing can really go right for big tech right now," Clinton revealed that Nvidia remains their top AI pick.
Why Nvidia still makes sense
Clinton acknowledged that repeatedly recommending Nvidia might seem "exhausting" given that the stock "hasn't worked this year" and particularly struggled over the past six months. However, he highlighted several compelling factors:
- Trading at 21 times forward earnings with what he considers "pretty solid" earnings
- The China risk has been "de-risked" with the H20 ban
- Hyperscalers are unlikely to stop spending on Nvidia chips regardless of economic conditions
Addressing the chip price concern
When questioned about the inevitability of chip prices coming down (as suggested by Amazon's Andy Jassy and others), Clinton agreed this would happen – noting it's the typical pattern in technology. However, he countered with an important observation about demand:
"What we're seeing over the last three months, and I don't think this is being reflected in stocks at all, is that there is huge demand for these products, and I think it's increasing and even accelerating."
He pointed to recent AI model launches (OpenAI's O3, X.ai's Grok, and Google's Gemini) all facing capacity constraints, suggesting "demand will be there to force more chip buying, even if prices do come down."
Beyond Nvidia: portfolio strategy
Interestingly, Nvidia is the only mega-cap tech stock Intelligent Alpha currently owns in their Livermore ETF. Their AI-powered models recently made a notable contrarian move:
"About two weeks ago, the biggest contrarian bet the models want to make is into gold."
This has resulted in what Clinton describes as a "barbell approach" with:
- AI stocks (Nvidia, Micron, TSM)
- A heavy position in gold and gold miners
Advice for investors
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